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Impact based forecast

February 24 marked one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. This past year, PPRD East 3 colleagues from CIMA Research Foundation have been providing weather forecasts to help the aid workers from the Italian Red Cross. By highlighting possible risk factors in the affected areas, we ensure safer and more effective humanitarian operations.


“The only real way to ensure sustainability and to maximize the impact of European projects is to work on synergic approaches capable of strengthening partnerships and of utilizing the important results gained within a systemic civil protection perspective,” says Davide Miozzo dep. Team Leader and Key Expert for PPRD East 3.

CIMA Research Foundation writes:

Managing emergencies during conflicts by putting science and humanitarian aid together can be a real game changer. Since Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine began, the PPRD EAST 3 consortium, coordinated by the Swedish Civil Protection organization (MSB), has developed activities to support Ukrainian authorities in structuring and strengthening the ongoing civil protection and humanitarian intervention, by establishing Early Warning to Early Action mechanisms.

Thanks to the synergy between the PPRD EAST 3 and the SEE MHEWS projects, CIMA Research Foundation and the Italian Red Cross (CRI) have developed an Impact-Based Forecast (IBF). This daily bulletin - shared with the organizations responsible for managing the humanitarian crisis caused by the conflict – is providing information on hydro-meteorological events (such as low temperatures, cold waves, rain, snow, etc.), and this is applied to the presence of IDPs (internally displaced persons), the population, the locations of Red Cross mobile clinics, and infrastructure (especially roads). The thresholds have been set to reflect the severity of impacts on specific exposed factors (e.g. roads, IDPs, population), thus enabling responders to plan accordingly.

This valuable tool is used operationally by CRI to plan its intervention in the country, providing situational awareness to enable a more accurate short/medium term planning of the humanitarian and civil protection actions.

Learn more here: https://www.cimafoundation.org/.../science-civil.../

The news was also highlighted on Relief web: https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/impact-based-forecast-ukraine-early-warning-early-action-strategies-support-humanitarian-aid

Project management

Videos about the programme

Collage with photos from the full scale exercise

The PPRD East 3 programme aims to increase the resilience to disasters in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine. The programme supports to establish an early warning early action-based civil protection approach.
This approach was practiced during a full-scale exercise on forest fires in Tbilisi, Georgia in May and June 2023, aiming to strengthen inter-institutional and regional coordination. Forest fire is a prominent risk in all partner countries and we are stronger together.

Watch the video about the exercise here: TbiEx2023


 Peter Glerum in a profile photo giving a quote on our apporach

In this video, PPRD East 3 Team Leader Peter Glerum is explaining the overall programme objectives. We have chosen to focus on forest fire risks as it is a prominent risk in all partner countries. We focus on supporting the change from a response based approach to disaster management in an early warning, early action based multi-stakeholder approach. Integration of gender, human rights and environmental perspectives is key in the programme implementation.


We are testing the capacities of civil protection systems, learning from the past and preparing for future events.

Follow the link to watch how we have adapted the method for Table top Exercises in order to fulfill our commitment to the programme, despite of COVID-19 restrictions.

Practical Guidelines for integrating gender, human rights and environmental issues in Disaster Risk Management

Practical Guidelines for integrating gender, human rights and environmental issues in Disaster Risk Management

The Guidelines build upon global standards and best practices and present practical advice on how to integrate gender, human rights and environment into nine thematic areas of the programme. Examples of thematic areas include, training and exercises, Multi-Risk Assessments, Early Warning Systems, Public awareness, volunteerism and Host Nation Support. The document has been produced in collaboration with the PPRD East 3 programme experts and partner countries’ organisations to enhance the quality and relevance of the guidance. The Guidelines was produced as an interactive online resource and is available in English and Russian.

Read the document in english
Read the document in russian